Abstract: The fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoirs of Tahe oilfield have characteristics of deep buried depth,strong heterogeneity and great difficulty in developing and it is of great importance to predict the variation regularity of production changes for later design and adjustment of development plan.However,the production is easily influenced by outside factors,so it is very difficult to make the production forecast.In this paper,based on the actual production data,combined with correlation analysis principle,the production forecast model of XX unit with the consideration of the number of output wells,the number of injection wells,oil production rate and so on was established through the method of factor analysis.The effectiveness of this model is shown through the result of the comparison of forecasting data and actual data.Therefore,a simple,practical and effective method to predict the production changes for this kind of reservoir is provided.